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| Latest news |
 Storms Passed For Now - More Tomorrow? |
Poster: KennyWeather • Forum: Weather Updates
June 18th, 2009, 7:24 pm
~Thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall moved through the area today. Other than the heavy rainfall, most storms were not extremely bad except to the south and east of Washington where some hail and wind were reported. Tomorrow, there will again be a threat for storms mainly during the evening hours as a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) moves in from the north and west. Stay tuned for updates. Will be updating tomorrow morning.
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| Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon |
Poster: KennyWeather • Forum: Weather Updates
June 18th, 2009, 11:49 am
Quote: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA INTO NJ AND SWD THROUGH THE DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181540Z - 181715Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL MD INTO
S-CNTRL/SERN PA WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD/SEWD THIS
AFTERNOON PER 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. AS THIS OCCURS...ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SSEWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD
DEVELOP EWD/NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF ERN MD...DE AND PERHAPS SRN NJ.
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER CNTRL/ERN VA INTO CNTRL MD IS
QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHEN
COUPLED WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING...AIR MASS WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AS
SUCH...EXPECT CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM SERN PA THROUGH
CNTRL MD INTO NRN VA TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INTO CNTRL/ERN VA ALONG SEWD-MOVING
TROUGH/COLD FRONT.
CURRENT AREA VWPS INDICATE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E OF WARM
FRONT /REF. CURRENT DOX WIND PROFILE/ WITH NOTABLY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITHIN WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY...30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS INVOF LOW AND WARM FRONT
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
..MEAD.. 06/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37707829 39027762 40007706 40417636 40437556 40317493
39537483 38467573 37467621 36997679 37107796 37707829
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| Local Weather Discussion - June 8, 2009 |
Poster: KennyWeather • Forum: Weather Updates
June 8th, 2009, 7:40 pm
~A few isolated storms have popped up to the west of the immediate DC area this evening. Some of this activity may make it east of the mountains later, but will likely be weaker by the time any activity reaches the DC metro area. Tomorrow could potentially be more active with high instability values and better dynamics. Stay tuned.
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| Another Potential for Severe Weather - June 3, 2009 |
Poster: KennyWeather • Forum: Weather Updates
June 3rd, 2009, 10:44 am
ACTIVE ALERT FOR FORECAST AREA: Flash Flood Watch for Today into Tonight
~Yesterday, I discussed the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of the area. Confidence is up that there will be some pretty big boomers across the region but specific areas that will experience dangerous weather are obviously still up in the air. According to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the best threat will reside along and to the east of the I-95 corridor but severe storms are possible anywhere in the area.
Instability parameters were low this morning but are expected to make a healthy recovery with the potential existing for 1000-2000 j/kg of Surface Based Convective Available Potential Energy (SBCAPE) and between 1000 and 1500 j/kg of Mixed Layer CAPE. This combined with at least some wind shear will combine to produce a threat for severe storms with mainly damaging winds and hail being the threats. However, if more shear is realized and more turning is evident in the atmosphere, a few isolated spin-up tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially in the vicinity of the warm frontal boundry draped across portions of the area.
Dewpoints are not as high as modeled (no surprising) but still, they are respectable in the middle 60s. Temperatures as of this writing were climbing through the mid 70s and we are expected to top out well into the 80s this afternoon. Locally run models suggest storms may develop to the west by 17z or 18z and then move across the area from west to east with cells forming into line segments wih possible bow echo signatures (bow echos suggest damaging wind potential).
All in all, fairly good setup for some decent storms this afternoon.
Stay tuned for updates including watches and other alerts.
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